All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, However, he offsets these improvements with a tanking contact rate, whiffing 12% of the time which is in no doubt contributing to one of the highest strikeout rates of his professional career. by Handedness. Reported as the pre-2020 season number of waiver options remaining. Website admin will know that you reported it. The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 526 – The Ohtani Debut! Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. Obviously, some regression needs to figure into the mix, but he’s a legit high-BABIPer. The 28-year old Pham is slashing .250/.348/.500 with 8 homers in just under 140 plate appearances, good for a 127 wRC+. One would think that by swinging at better pitches, better contact rates would follow but counterintuitively that hasn’t been the case, at least not against fastballs. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. While his strikeouts have inched over the 30% threshold, his walks are up too; Pham is taking the free pass 11.5% of the time. Ridiculous. You have to assume some degree of regression off 2017, but his patience is for real. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Regardless, he kills it when he makes contact, leading the league in average exit velocity on breaking pitches.

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. However, Pham is no veteran and I built in some risk of him flopping and losing his job, or at the very least, getting dropped in the order.

Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted

and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. He’s made some interesting adjustments at the plate that in the short term should earn him playing time and may prove enough to keep him in the lineup down the stretch. All other systems are 24.1% or higher, which is a significant difference. FanGraphs does not have a paywall.

by Retrosheet.

As a result, Pham has seemingly become an excellent breaking ball hitter. One of the primary reasons we’re all so intrigued by Pham’s fantasy potential is that he has a stolen base cushion to lean on. He actually hasn’t gotten his FB% above 29.5% during any of his MLB stints, resulting in a career average of just 27%. The out of nowhere performance composed of all-around contributions have not surprisingly excited fantasy owners. Pham figures to open the season as the Cardinals number two hitter, which means that if he remains there all season, he’ll earn the second highest number of plate appearances. as distributed by STATS. And this year, wouldn’t you know it, he’s improved across the three most significant components that comprise xBABIP: True IFFB%, LD%, and Hard%. FanGraphs does not have a paywall.

Given the regression baked in to my projections, it’s also very possible he outperforms.

Though he hadn’t shown a real willingness to steal bases in the Majors until 2017, he always had in the minors. Still just 28, Pham has lived the life of a much older player. If you filter NFBC ADP by drafts that have taken place only in 2018, he’s the 57th ranked player overall with an ADP of 58.2. It’s always a challenge figuring out what to do about late age breakouts like Pham, but fantasy owners don’t seem to be the least bit hesitant here. This season, Pham owns one of the most even spray charts in baseball. Now we’re looking at his ISO against breaking pitches. Still, if you’re looking for some late season category juice, and who isn’t, Tommy Pham is on a tear. Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. While regression manifested in 2017, he still maintained a big rate at 26.7%. You can read more about the state of the site here. Avg Salary All Leagues $15.33 Last 10 adds $12.80 Old School (5x5) $15.46 Last 10 adds $13.10.

I’m actually second highest in batting average and it’s not even because of the use of my xBABIP equation. Signed By You You You Ottoneu for $19. For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. Even in piecemeal playing time, he’s been remarkably hot, sporting an OBP-fueled 1.069 OPS and 2.33 BB/K ratio in 27 August plate appearances. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. After much deliberation, the author has decided that this Deep League Waiver Wire piece will not include any puns involving Tommy Pham’s last name. I came to the opinion that the only real risk lied in K% collapse and other normal age related risk. Wowzers, while Pham did post a crazy 34.6% HR/FB rate in 2016, it came in just 159 at-bats. Sure, these marks are lower than his actual, but still, TOMMY PHAM is right up there with the big boys and was fully deserving of HR/FB rates above 20%.

It’s rather interesting that despite the difference in strikeout rate, Steamer, ZiPS and ATC still all project similar home run totals and batting average. Came to the same conclusions on Pham after a deep dive a couple weeks ago. We hoped you liked reading Cardinals Trade Tommy Pham to Rays by Craig Edwards! Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. Well, because his minor league marks were typically much higher, and the MLB average sat at 35.5%. 2018 Pod Projections Index: The Cardinals should have a solid enough offense and the two-hole is a respectable spot to accumulate runs plus runs batted in. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the articles you've come to rely on and enjoy, like this one. Updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 7:43 AM ET, Park Factors Tommy Pham SDP OF R Born: 03/08/1988 (Age: 32) FanGraphs Player Page. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. Updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 7:43 AM ET, Park Factors With a good Spd score and solid enough success rate, only age is driving a small reduction in steals. In other words, he’s basically average in that department. I have no idea, because the equation is darn good! Assuming no surgery is required (and we can expect an answer on that this week), Holliday is likely to miss up to 5 weeks with a broken thumb. It’s over 36% despite an average home run distance of 395 feet, good for 215th out of 393 batters with 60 or more balls in-play.

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